92.9% of Solihull Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Solihull Property Market

Well it’s been four weeks since the referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my remain article at the ready, to be presented, just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.

In this article I would like to move on from that initial article and start to look at the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Solihull Property Market.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council area went against the National mood and voted as follows:

Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council          Remain Votes  53,466             (43.8% of the vote)

Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council          Leave Votes     68,484             (56.2% of the vote)

Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council Turnout        76%

I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, many surveys seem to suggest there was a correlation between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Solihull resident is 41.3 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go some way to back up the way Solihull voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has initially created uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).  However, there is evidence that in the local business environment that suggests there are new business opportunities opening up as countries take advantage of the exchange rate and with the prospect of EU restrictions being lifted, so maybe this uncertainty is unfounded.

Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council area, of the 64,083 properties that are owned in the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.

Age 16 to 34 homeowners      4,559    or        7.1%  (Nationally 9.6%)

Age 35 to 49 homeowners    18,248    or      28.5%  (Nationally 29.2%)

Age 50 to 64 homeowners    19,742    or      30.8%  (Nationally 30.7%)

Aged 65+ homeowners          21,534    or      33.6%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council area homeowners would vote remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?

But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!