Well it’s been
four weeks since the referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect
on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the
article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night
before with a draft of my remain article at the ready, to be presented, just
after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I
don’t think any of us were expecting that.
In this article I would like to move on from that initial
article and start to look at the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK,
but more importantly, the Solihull Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Solihull Metropolitan
Borough Council area went against the National mood and voted as follows:
Solihull Metropolitan Borough
Council Remain Votes 53,466 (43.8%
of the vote)
Solihull Metropolitan Borough
Council Leave Votes 68,484 (56.2%
of the vote)
Solihull Metropolitan
Borough Council Turnout 76%
I have been reading there is some evidence to
indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote remain than their
parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have
been widely criticised, many surveys seem to suggest there was a correlation
between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Solihull resident is 41.3
years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go some way
to back up the way Solihull voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether
you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has initially created
uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty
(with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have
tended to go down). However, there is
evidence that in the local business environment that suggests there are new
business opportunities opening up as countries take advantage of the exchange
rate and with the prospect of EU restrictions being lifted, so maybe this
uncertainty is unfounded.
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in
the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council area, of the 64,083 properties that are owned in the Solihull Metropolitan
Borough Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or
shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 16 to 34 homeowners
4,559 or 7.1% (Nationally
9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 18,248 or 28.5% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 19,742 or 30.8% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners 21,534 or 33.6% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of
older homeowners, you might think all the Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council
area homeowners would vote remain to keep house prices stable and younger
people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?
But there's a risk in oversimplifying
this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country
voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the
way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of
education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on
the way the various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume
everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20
somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!
