Friday 4 September 2015

Solihull – The 10 year Time Bomb on Home Ownership





Many people think the British obsession with owning your own home started with Thatcher in the early 1980s, when she allowed council tenants to buy their council houses under the right to buy scheme. However, the growth actually started just after the Second World War. Looking at the country as a whole in 1951 30% of residential property was owner occupied then, every ten years that rose incrementally to 39% by 1961; 51% by 1971; 58% by 1981 and 68.07% by 2001, by 2013/14 the figures dropped to 63% and continue to drop today.

Young adults tend to start to think about settling down and moving out of the family home in their early-mid twenties.  After a couple of years, they will have a choice of either buying their first house (albeit with a mortgage) or decide to privately rent for the long term (the Council House waiting list is measured in decades at the moment!). The ratio of people owning a house with a mortgage verses privately renting is an extremely important guide as to the behaviour of people in respect of their housing needs and what their attitude to renting vs buying is.  With that in mind, within the next ten years, I predict that more people will privately rent in Solihull compared to those who purchase a property with a mortgage, meaning that the British love affair of property ownership will wane as the decades roll on.

This is a really important change in attitude to the way we live.  Understanding where the demand of tenants is going to come from in the coming decade is just as important as understanding the supply side of the buy to let equation, such as the number of properties built in the town, Solihull property prices and Solihull rental prices.
In the Solihull Borough Council area as a whole there are 7,795 households that are privately rented via a landlord or letting agency and there are 31,859 households that are owned with a mortgage, so my prediction appears to be outrageous. However, when we look deeper 15,776 of those 31,859 households are 35 to 49 year olds and 10,091 are households of 50 to 64 year olds. I would expect all the 50+ years to be paying their mortgage off as they enter retirement as I would with some of the people in their mid/late 40’s. 

Meanwhile in the 25 to 34 age range (the age group most people bought their first home in the 1970s/80s/90s) only 3,762 of the 6,329 households occupied by those 25 to 34 year olds are owner occupiers with mortgages, 2,567 households are privately rented. This means only 59.4% of 25 to 34 year olds have bought their house (with a mortgage). Twenty years ago, that would have a much higher percentage of between 75% and 85%.

It can be concluded therefore that as the older generation approach retirement and pay their mortgages off, the younger generation aren’t jumping on the property ladder like they were 20 or 30 years ago. The private rental sector will take up the slack as more and more people need a roof over their head and will rent rather than buy a property. With the new build by local authorities and housing associations nowhere near the number of houses they were building in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, the private landlord appears to have good demand for their rental properties for many decades to come.

This will create a polarisation in the housing market between those, mostly older householders, who own outright and those, mostly younger householders, who rent. Our housing market is very much turning into the European model. However, all is not lost the younger generation will inherit their parents properties, which in turn will enable them to buy albeit later on in life.

If you are a landlord or thinking of become a landlord, and would like to read more articles like this please visit the Solihull Property Blog   http://solihullpropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/





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